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Spiral steel pipe prices, International Financial News: Eight conjectures of industry professionals to take the pulse of 2019 real estate industry

Author: Tianjin Daegu Zhuang Xinhong Pipe Source: diseinugile.com Hits: Updated: March 22, 2019 [Font: large, medium and small ]

Tags: price of spiral steel pipe Tianjin spiral tube factory Daqiuzhuang spiral tube thick wall spiral welded pipe

On January 8, Ding Zuyu, CEO of E-House Enterprise Group, made some predictions for the real estate market in 2019 through the data matrix, and the price of spiral steel pipes .
"International Financial News" reporters accordingly interviewed a number of industry people, trying to use these logic behind the forecast point of view, to find more footholds for the trend of the industry in 2019, with a view to moving forward, spiral steel pipe prices.
1 Still an economic ballast stone
After the "cold winter" in 2018, at the beginning of this forecast, Ding Zuyu set the tone of "confidence is more important than gold", hoping to encourage more people in the industry, the price of spiral steel pipes . He said that there is no need to lose confidence in the future of real estate, especially not to lose confidence in 2019. In terms of the size and volume of real estate, this industry is still the price and price of ballast stones and stabilizers, spiral steel pipes for the Chinese economy.
But under the general tone of frequent regulation, "real estate kidnapping economy" questioning is growing, and the concept of "housing not speculation" is deeply rooted, what role will the real estate industry play in economic development in the future?
An executive of a top ten housing company told the International Financial News reporter that although real estate has entered the second half, the process of urbanization in China is far from over, and consumer demand for a good life and a good house has not decreased. Contribution is still considerable (more than 16%), and the pull on the upstream and downstream is still strong, the price of spiral steel pipe . Under the downward pressure on the economy and the policy of "no housing and speculation," real estate has shifted from a locomotive driving the economy to a ballast stone that stabilizes the Chinese economy.
2 "Release water" is hard to quench thirst
On January 4, the People's Bank of China decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 1 percentage point, and on January 15 and January 25, 2019, by 0.5 percentage points, the price of spiral steel pipes . At the same time, the medium-term loan facility (MLF) due in the first quarter of 2019 will no longer be renewed, and the price of spiral steel pipes will continue.
A relevant person in charge of the People's Bank of China said that the RRR cut will net release of about 800 billion yuan of long-term incremental funds, which can effectively increase the source of real economy loan funds for small and micro enterprises, private enterprises, and spiral steel pipe prices.
The real estate industry's concern is: Can the lowering allow more funds to flow into the property market?
Ding Zuyu believes that the first half of 2019 may be the first half of the real estate pressure in ten years, and there may be some changes in policies, but it is not necessary to consider the impact of the currency market on the short-term property market and the price of spiral steel pipes . Even if the currency is moderately flooded, it will not immediately affect real estate and the price of spiral steel pipes .
Zhang Hongwei, research director of Tongce Research Institute, said that the four reductions since 2018 have not driven the property market up, and this time it will not have much impact on the price of spiral steel pipes .
Zhang Hongwei believes that the regulation of the property market in 2019 is still the keynote. In the face of the numerous firewalls given to financing channels for housing enterprises, most of the funds cannot enter the development field, so the released liquidity is difficult to have an effect on real estate, and the price of spiral steel pipes . Housing enterprises will still be tight in capital, and the trend of price reductions in the property market will not change. Spiral steel pipe prices.
Under the command of "more money and more debt," the financing of housing enterprises is also falling, and the price of spiral steel pipes . According to the data of the same strategy research institute, in 2018, the total financing of 40 typical housing enterprises was 629.124 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.8% from 2017. Monthly plunge of 64.12%, welcoming the largest decline since 2018, and also hit a new financing low since 2017, the price of spiral steel pipe .
3 "Four Limits" is expected to relax
After a long period of regulation and control, the real estate market in the last month of 2018 released a little loose signal, the price of spiral steel pipe . During this period, Heze in Shandong, Guangzhou in Guangdong, Zhuhai in Guangdong, Hengyang in Hunan, and Hefei in Anhui successively released information about the release of restrictions on sales and prices. Even after Hengyang issued a notice and dramatic cancellations, the outside world still believed that the real estate market Unbundling is a foregone conclusion, the price of spiral steel pipe .
An executive from a top 20 housing company said in an interview with the reporter of the International Financial News that policy relaxation has already occurred, and the price of spiral steel pipes . The logic behind this is that the core demand of the real estate market policy is "stability", that is, the property market cannot fluctuate greatly, house prices cannot fluctuate sharply, and spiral steel pipe prices. The "four limits" are restraining policies when the market is hot, and when the market is cooling down, it is necessary to relax policies, adjust expectations, underpin deals and investments, and price of spiral steel pipes .
The above-mentioned executives bluntly stated that in the future, the property market will fluctuate slightly between breaking the upper limit and not penetrating the lower limit, seeking balance, and the price of spiral steel pipes .
4 Industry size decline
In the first half of 2018, sales in third- and fourth-tier cities accounted for 69% of the total, compared with 67% in the fourth quarter of 2018, a decrease of 2 percentage points. Spiral steel pipe prices. Ding Zuyu thinks this is a signal worthy of attention. The weak overall transaction in the third and fourth tier cities will directly affect the industry scale in 2019 and the price of spiral steel pipes .
A well-known real estate person who did not want to be named told the International Financial News reporter that, overall, the population of first-tier and second-tier cities is still in a net inflow, demand has grown steadily for a long time, and the price of spiral steel pipes . The population of third- and fourth-tier cities is in and out, basically balanced, stable in demand, and the price of spiral steel pipes . The population outflow and demand in the fifth and sixth tier cities are difficult to grow, and the price of spiral steel pipes .
He analyzed that there will be no large-scale policy stimulus in the future. The market size will return to natural demand and maintain continued stability, but the probability of exceeding the market size in 2018 should be small, and the price of spiral steel pipes .
5 Just need to slide
Another warning raised by Ding Zuyu at the meeting was that the price of spiral steel pipes declined in 2018 due to the overall decline in the transaction volume of just-in-hand housing in the outskirts.
Central Plains real estate market analyst Lu Wenxi told the "International Financial News" reporter that restrictions on project locations, facilities and other factors and home buyers' expectations of falling house prices are the reasons for the decline in demand for just-in-hand housing, spiral steel pipe prices. "Taking Shanghai as an example, the average price in Central is RMB 90,000 / square, and the price in peripheral suburbs is RMB 40,000 / square, and the peripheral products are reduced, simple or rough, the cost performance is not high, and the price of spiral steel pipes ."
According to Chen Zeshuai, president of the Shanghai Branch of the Shell Research Institute, "Since 2018, the listing of new and second-hand housing in Shanghai has been concentrated in areas outside Central. The price of spiral steel pipes . Among them, the supply of new houses outside Central accounts for 80%. Above, the supply of second-hand housing outside of Central accounts for 65%, and the price of spiral steel pipes . From the demand side, the total number of house-viewing customers outside of Central is 55%, and customers can choose the largest range. The relationship between supply and demand Relatively mild, the price of spiral steel pipes . "
"Not yet reached the bottom" is Chen Zeshuai's market expectation for the first set of just-in-time homes in Shanghai Overseas Ring Road in 2019. He said, "The price reduction will make the product more competitive, and the price of spiral steel pipes ."
Lu Wenxi also pointed out that in 2019, many real estate companies covering the plate may step up the push because of financial problems. The situation of oversupply is beneficial to rigid demand and the price of spiral steel pipes .
"The decline in demand just now and the improvement of the proportion of demand is a big trend. The price of spiral steel pipes . The current policy is more concerned about ordinary housing. For low-income groups and people who have difficulty purchasing, increase the supply of public rental housing. People who start commercial housing supply common property houses and spiral steel pipe prices in big cities. "Said Yang Hongxu, deputy dean of Yiju Real Estate Research Institute." At the same time, the development of the leasing market has increased, and many cities have begun to sell land for leasing. The number and proportion of rented houses will increase, and the price of spiral steel pipes will increase. "
6 Land prices will fall
Ding Zuyu found that comparing all the land transferred in 2018 with the land around the region in 2017 and 2016, more than 60% of the land prices have fallen, and the price of spiral steel pipes . Based on this data, Ding Zuyu believes that there is still room for land prices to fall in 2019 and it is a good time to “bottom up” the price of spiral steel pipes .
Kerrie data show that the overall land price fell in 2018, which is the first time in 5 years that the price of spiral steel pipes . As of the fourth quarter of 2018, the premium rates of first- and second-tier cities have fallen below 10%, and most of the parcels have been sold at the bottom price; while the premium rates of third- and fourth-tier cities that have averaged over 50% have also fallen to 18%. Spiral steel pipe prices.
Although the land premium rate is lower, it is limited to the problems of tightening financing environment and sluggish sales performance. Compared with state-owned enterprises and central enterprises, in the second half of 2018, private housing companies performed more conservatively in the bidding market. Spiral steel pipe prices .
"Land prices may have reached the bottom area, but home buyers are still watching, house prices are expected to fall, how much profitable the project can be, whether the company's cash flow is sufficient to support development costs, etc. are all factors we consider when acquiring land. Spiral steel pipe prices and prices. "A housing company manager told the" International Financial News "reporter that the price of spiral steel pipes .
Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of the E-House Research Institute, believes that in terms of urban energy levels, with the gradual reduction of monetization, housing companies may return to the core first- and second-tier cities to take land, resulting in a rebound in the volume and price of such cities. Steel pipe prices.
7 Leasing industry reshuffle
Regarding the recent leasing industry, Ding Zuyu said that "opportunity" lies in transforming individual housing into institutional operation, and operating companies need to "close to" the "big tree" of the housing enterprise to reduce pressure. .
An intermediary told the International Financial News reporter that large institutions and platforms entering the leasing industry may improve the clutter of previous housing information and landlords ’arbitrary increase in prices and defaults due to direct rent, and improve the standardization and transparency of industry operations. Spiral steel pipe prices.
However, the above-mentioned persons also pointed out that the institutionalization of the housing leasing industry may also mean that the agency has a monopoly on market housing, and its pricing of rents will have a huge impact on the price of spiral steel pipes .
In 2018, I loved my family (4.690, -0.01, -0.21%). Hu Jinghui, the former vice president of the company, named the long-term rental apartment operator represented by ZiRan and Eggshell as the expansion scale. In the hands of scrambling for listings, and through the accumulation of a large number of listings, it can form a right to speak that can interfere with the market rent level, spiral steel pipe prices.
In fact, similar cases to long-term rental apartments with broken capital chains due to blind expansion are not uncommon in 2018.
"Insufficient capital and operating capacity is the reason why many leasing companies are stuck in the bottleneck of development. Spiral steel pipe prices and prices. In cooperation with branded housing companies, they can use the financing channels and operating advantages of housing companies to increase the scale of lease business expansion. "The above person said that the price of spiral steel pipes .
However, for real estate companies that have already been involved in or listed housing leasing as one of their diversified strategic sectors, cooperation with small and medium-sized, regional leasing institutions may not be attractive. Spiral steel pipe prices.
It is understood that Vanke, Longhu, Xuhui, etc. have now formed a certain long-term rental scale, spiral steel pipe prices. For Vanke, which has leased dwellings as its core business, as of the first half of 2018, it has acquired more than 160,000 rooms and spiral steel pipe prices.
Housing companies such as Country Garden, Poly, Yuexiu, China Resources, Capital, and Zhengrong have also set up their "ambitions" in the field of long-term rental. For example, Country Garden plans to expand 1 million long-term rental apartments around first-tier cities and surrounding areas by 2020. Spiral steel pipe prices.
In addition, Midea Real Estate, Greenland, Zhonghai, Fantasia, Sunshine City (5.280, -0.01, -0.19%) and other real estate companies have tested the long-term rental apartment, spiral steel pipe prices.
However, in the current weakening environment of the property market, it is yet to be seen whether the housing companies will shift from independent development and construction to acquisition of more mature leasing projects due to factors such as the investment return cycle and capital sedimentation. The price of spiral steel pipes .
"The current supply and demand structure of the leasing market is unbalanced, low-end demand is underestimated, resulting in fewer low-cost housing, coupled with the conductivity of rising house prices, the development of the leasing market is still relatively immature, and spiral steel pipe prices." Zhang Dawei, chief analyst at Zhongyuan Real Estate The price of spiral steel pipes .
8 Property management is bullish
In 2018, as Country House, Agile, Xincheng, Jiazhaoye, Xuhui and other housing companies have spun off their property segments and listed in Hong Kong, the property has become a new "battlefield" in the diversified transformation of housing enterprises in 2018, and the price of spiral steel pipes .
The growth of complex community demand, the capital market's recognition of property company valuations, BAT's "smell the fragrance" and seek cooperation in the layout of community formats, and real estate companies through M & A to seize the scale and resources of property management ... All these signs have made Ding Zuyu Optimistic about the development potential of the property management industry, the price of spiral steel pipes .
On the contrary, for the pension real estate industry, as the definition and boundaries of "old" are constantly changing, and the pension industry chain and business model are still in the incubation period, Ding Zuyu recommends that housing companies, especially private housing companies, be "a little calmer" at this stage. , Spiral steel pipe prices.
Yan Yuejin pointed out that at present, many old-age real estate projects have a low real occupancy rate and are not much different from residential projects, while medical-type "senior communities" may face more problems in operation and prices of spiral steel pipes .
"The reason why the real estate industry stands out is that there are more listing actions by property companies and the price of spiral steel pipes ." Yan Yuejin believes that "in the field of physical management, there are many forms of innovative formats, such as using property projects as a platform, using mobile Internet, cloud, etc. Platform and other technologies, connect suppliers and owners, tap new consumption scenarios, and extract transaction commissions and spiral steel pipe prices from them. "
As a value-added business that is in line with real estate development, property management is the first choice "playing method" for many real estate companies to enter the existing housing market, and the separate listing of real estate properties will also help real estate companies to use new financing channels to compete on the track. Spiral steel pipe prices price.
However, there are also real estate companies that are waiting to see the property listed, such as Vanke, spiral steel pipe prices. It is reported that when asked when Vanke Property was listed, the chairman of the board of directors of Vanke Yu Liang stated that it would need to consider the listing after the price and price of spiral steel pipes .
Vanke's "sold by the soldiers" is not without reason, the price of spiral steel pipes . From the perspective of real estate companies listed in 2018, it is difficult for most property companies to get rid of their reliance on the residential business of their parent company or related parties. How to expand third-party market share and diversify their income also tests these capital markets "Recruit", price of spiral steel pipe .
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