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The supply of coke in the large-diameter spiral pipe plant is slightly loose, and it is necessary to pay close attention to policy implementation

Author: Tianjin Daegu Zhuang Xinhong Pipe Source: diseinugile.com Hits: Updated: November 27, 2019 [Font: large, medium and small ]

Tags: Spiral steel pipe price Thick wall spiral welded pipe Large diameter spiral pipe factory Q235b rectangular pipe

Core point
? .Coking coal coke generally operated weakly in October. After the 11th long holiday, the large-caliber spiral pipe factory, after the market ’s bullish sentiment on steel, fell, the large-caliber spiral pipe factory operated weakly. The large-caliber spiral tube plant, due to the post-holiday coking plant recovery speed is faster than the steel plant blast furnace operating rate, large-caliber spiral tube plant, coke supply and demand is slightly loose, large-caliber spiral tube plant, coke has become the most vulnerable species in the entire black system
From the current situation, the large-diameter spiral pipe factory, the coke was reduced by 50 yuan / ton after the profit was severely compressed, the large-diameter spiral pipe factory, and then began to suppress the price of raw coke coal prices, the large-diameter spiral pipe factory, with With the coming of the heating season, the operating rate of large-diameter spiral pipe plants and coking plants will gradually decrease. In large-diameter spiral pipe plants, coking coal prices will continue to weaken under loose supply and demand conditions. Large-diameter spiral pipe plants are recommended to pay attention to coke enterprises in the later stage. Profit situation, large-diameter spiral pipe plant, and safety inspection efforts of coal mines after entering the heating season.
The demand for surface coke is sluggish. For large-diameter spiral pipe plants, the market hopes that the capacity of the coking industry will be reduced by the end of the year. Large-diameter spiral pipe plants, but from the current point of view, the situation is still unclear.
First, the market review
Coking coal coke generally operated weakly in October. After the 11th long holiday, the large-caliber spiral pipe factory, the large-calibre spiral pipe factory, the market's bullish sentiment on steel fell, and the large-caliber spiral pipe factory, the entire black system, weakly operated, large-caliber Spiral tube plant, due to the post-holiday coking plant recovery speed is faster than the steel plant blast furnace operating rate, large diameter spiral tube plant, coke supply and demand is slightly loose, large diameter spiral tube plant, coke has become the most vulnerable species in the entire black system, large For large-calibre spiral pipe plants, the main coke contract in 2001 fell from 1,890 yuan / ton opened after the festival to 1,732 yuan / ton. For large-calibre spiral pipe plants, the main coking coal contract opened and went low after the festival in 2001, and large-caliber spiral pipe plants went from 1270. Yuan / ton fell to 1205 yuan / ton. On October 22, due to the macro news, the large-diameter spiral pipe factory, coking coal and coke started to rebound slightly, and the large-diameter spiral pipe factory. The coking coal coke overall operated weakly in the month, and the large diameter spiral tube plant, but the coking coal market is relatively optimistic compared to coke.
On the spot, large-diameter spiral pipe factory, after the 11th holiday, large-diameter spiral pipe factory, the steel market is contrary to expectations, large-diameter spiral pipe factory, began to "endlessly", large-diameter spiral pipe factory, and then affect the price of coke An increase of 100 yuan / ton failed to land. The large-diameter spiral pipe factory was affected by pessimism. However, the large-diameter spiral pipe factory fell by 50 yuan / ton, and the large-diameter spiral pipe factory quickly landed. However, After the landing, the transaction situation did not improve, and the large-diameter spiral pipe plant entered a stalemate. After the price of coke fell by 50 yuan / ton, the profits of coking enterprises in the large-calibre spiral tube plant were compressed, and the large-calibre spiral tube plant began to suppress the price of coking coal at the raw material end. The large-caliber spiral coke factory Weak operation.
Second, the basic situation of coking coal
1. The supply of raw coal is basically stable, and the large-caliber spiral pipe plant has an unclear policy on imported coal.
After the National Day, the large-diameter spiral pipe plant, the coal mines in various places that were suspended due to environmental monitoring in the early stage, gradually resumed production. According to the National Bureau of Statistics data, from January to September 2019, the large-caliber spiral pipe plant has a national raw coal output of 2.736642 trillion tons. The large-calibre spiral pipe plant has a cumulative year-on-year growth of 4.5%. The large-calibre spiral pipe plant Among them, the nation ’s raw coal production in September was 32.141 million tons. The large-diameter spiral pipe plant increased by 4.4% year-on-year, and the large-diameter spiral pipe plant decreased by 0.6 percentage point from the previous month. The reason for the decline in the production of raw coal in September may be that large-caliber spiral pipe plants, the National Day environmental protection safety tightening in early October led to the suspension of some coal mines, large-calibre spiral pipe plants, as of now, large-calibre spiral pipe plants, most coal mines The full-diameter spiral pipe plant has been resumed. It is expected that the growth rate of raw coal output in October will pick up. In the large-diameter spiral pipe plant, the supply of raw coal is stable. In terms of different regions, the large-diameter spiral pipe plant in September produced 83.808 million tons of raw coal, and the large-diameter spiral pipe plant increased 2.4% year-on-year; the raw coal production in Shanxi was 81.82 million tons, and the large-diameter spiral pipe plant increased 5.3% year-on-year. Shaanxi's raw coal output was 65.472 million tons, and the large-diameter spiral pipe plant increased by 11.7% year-on-year. At present, the overall supply of coking coal in the large-diameter spiral pipe plant is slightly loose.
In terms of imported coal, according to data from the large-diameter spiral pipe factory and the General Administration of Customs, the large-diameter spiral pipe factory, August 2019, the large-diameter spiral pipe factory, China's coking coal imports were 9.671 million tons, and the large-diameter spiral pipe factory, month-on-month An increase of 17.03%. Large-calibre spiral pipe plants, including 449,400 tons of coke coal imported from Australia, large-diameter spiral pipe plants, an increase of 13.6% from the previous month; Mongolian coking coal imports of 3.375 million tons, large-diameter spiral pipe plants, an increase of 45% year-on-year. In August, the total amount of imported coal increased to a certain extent. The large-diameter spiral pipe plant and weak international coking coal demand, the large-diameter spiral pipe plant, Australian coal arrivals increased, and the large-diameter spiral pipe plant, which added the recent port clearance restrictions, and the large-diameter spiral The management of the plant led to further accumulation of coking coal inventories at the port. As of October 25, the large-calibre spiral pipe factory had a coking coal inventory of 7.66 million tons, and the large-calibre spiral pipe factory had an increase of 105,000 tons weekly. According to the 2018 annual control of imported coal, the large-diameter spiral pipe factory has a remaining import quota of only 30 million tons in October to December. If the large-diameter spiral pipe factory strictly follows the import level control policy, the large-diameter spiral pipe Plant, the average monthly is only about 10 million tons. It is expected that the quantity of imported coal will drop in the later period. The large-diameter spiral pipe plant will slightly ease the pressure on domestic coking coal inventory. At present, the overall supply of coking coal is stable. Due to the weakening demand from downstream coking enterprises and the large diameter spiral pipe factory, the price of coking coal in October has shown a downward trend. The large diameter spiral pipe factory is now reducing its low-sulfur thin main coke. 20 yuan / ton reported 1380 yuan / ton, large-diameter spiral pipe plant, low-sulfur main coke in Anze area quoted at 1,480 yuan / ton, large-diameter spiral pipe plant, since October has been reduced by 60 yuan / ton.
2. The start-up of coking enterprises has dropped somewhat, and the large-diameter spiral pipe plant may reduce the demand for coking coal in the later stage.
After the 11th holiday, the large-diameter spiral pipe factory, coking enterprises resumed work quickly, the large-diameter spiral pipe factory, the coking plant operating rate quickly returned to the level before the National Day, large-diameter spiral pipe factory, but gradually changed with the weather in the north Cold, large-diameter spiral pipe plants, Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong and other regions have become stricter in environmental protection. The large-calibre spiral pipe plants have recently experienced a decline in the operating rate of coking plants. According to Mysteel data, as of October 25, the capacity utilization rate of 100 independent coking plants nationwide was 76.99%, and large-caliber spiral pipe plants fell by 1.02% week-on-week, and large-caliber spiral pipe plants, of which North China The capacity utilization rate was 69.52%. For large-diameter spiral pipe plants, the chain rate decreased by 2.06%. With the slight drop in the operating rate of coke enterprises, the overall black market sentiment is slightly pessimistic. For large-caliber spiral pipe plants, the procurement of coke in coke enterprises is mainly based on demand. For large-calibre spiral pipe plants, as of October 25, The total coke inventory of the spiral tube plant and the steel plant coking plant was 16.9883 million tons, and the large-diameter spiral tube plant increased by 339,500 tons weekly. Among them, the large-caliber spiral pipe plant and 100 independent coking plants have a total coking coal inventory of 8.121 million tons, and the large-calibre spiral pipe plant has a week-on-month increase of 109,700 tons; the 110 sample steel plants have a total coking coal inventory of 88.612 million tons and a large-caliber spiral Pipe plant, the week-on-month is 318,800 tons. Judging from the current situation, the profit of the large-diameter spiral pipe plant was severely compressed after the coke was reduced by 50 yuan / ton. The large-diameter spiral pipe plant began to suppress the price of coking coal at the raw material end. The large-diameter spiral pipe plant, along with the heating season, With the advent of large-diameter spiral pipe plants, the operating rate of coking plants will gradually decrease. In large-diameter spiral pipe plants, coking coal prices will continue to weaken under loose supply and demand conditions. Large-diameter spiral pipe plants are recommended to pay attention to the profits of coking enterprises in the later stage. Situation, large diameter spiral pipe plant, and coal mine safety inspection efforts after entering the heating season.
Third, the basic situation of coke
1. The coke output is relatively stable, and the import and export situation of the large-diameter spiral pipe plant is worthy of attention.
The operating rate of the coking plant has always remained high this year. In order to create a "National Day Blue", some large-scale spiral pipe plants will stop production and stop production in mid-September. Large-diameter spiral pipe plants, but just after the National Day, large-diameter spiral pipes Plant, coke enterprises quickly started, large-caliber spiral pipe plant, the first week after the National Day holiday coke enterprises operating rate reached the level before production limit. The data shows that from January to September 2019 in the large-diameter spiral pipe factory, the total output of coke in the country was 35.456 million tons. The large-diameter spiral pipe factory increased by 6.3% year-on-year. The large-diameter spiral pipe factory was 8 The monthly growth rate dropped by 0.4 percentage points. In September, the country's coke output was 39.22 million tons, and the large-diameter spiral pipe plant increased by 3.2% year-on-year. Among them, the large-diameter spiral pipe factory, in September, the large-diameter spiral pipe factory, Shanxi coke output was 8.002 million tons, the large-diameter spiral pipe factory, an increase of 2.6% year-on-year; Hebei coke production was 3.98 million tons, large-diameter spiral pipe factory, A year-on-year increase of 2.6%; Shandong's coke output was 4.134 million tons, a large-diameter spiral pipe plant, an increase of 28.7% year-on-year; Shaanxi coke output was 4.254 million tons, a large-diameter spiral pipe plant, an increase of 35.7% year-on-year; Inner Mongolia's output was 3.182 million tons, The large-diameter spiral pipe plant increased by 3.4% year-on-year. The reason for the slowdown in the growth rate of coke production in September is that environmental protection in North China was limited in mid-to-late September. With the approach of the heating season, the policy of environmental protection and production restriction in large-diameter spiral pipe plants will gradually tighten. The large-diameter spiral pipe factory, the superimposed steel season is coming, the large-diameter spiral pipe factory is expected to weaken the coke output in the later period, and the large-diameter spiral pipe factory is recommended to pay close attention to the promulgation and implementation of environmental protection and production restriction policies in various regions in the later stage.
Another point worth paying attention to is that large-diameter spiral pipe factories in China in the past years basically belonged to net coke exporters. Large-diameter spiral pipe factories. The import volume of coke is very small. Large-diameter spiral pipe factories. However, the situation of coke this year has been subtle. Changes in large-calibre spiral pipe plants, first of all, the coke export volume has continued to decline significantly since the beginning of this year. From January to September, the cumulative export of coke from the large-calibre spiral pipe plant was 5.16 million tons, compared with 2018. A year-on-year decrease of 25.54%. Then in the second half of this year, several batches of imported supplies from Australia, Mongolia, and Japan began to appear. The large-diameter spiral pipe factory, the coke accumulated from January to August was 182,100 tons, and the large-diameter spiral pipe factory increased from the same period in 2018. 358.69%. Although the quantity of coke imports is still small, large-diameter spiral tube plants, this phenomenon illustrates two problems: first, the current demand for coke in the international market is not optimistic; second, China's coke prices are at a relatively high level, and large-diameter spiral tube plants There is an international price difference for sending excess coke to China. With the cyclical downturn of the global economy, the reversal of China's coke import and export situation in the large-diameter spiral pipe plant will exist for a long time.
2. Coke enterprise inventory starts to accumulate, large-caliber spiral pipe plant, steel mill and port inventory are still high
At the beginning of October, the coke inventory of coke enterprises in the large-diameter spiral pipe factory continued the low level of the previous two months. After the holidays, the operating rate of coke enterprises resumes production faster than that of steel plants and large-diameter spiral pipe plants, and due to the release of autumn and winter air pollution control plans in northern China, the operating rate of blast furnaces in large-diameter spiral pipe plants is lower than that of coke ovens. Spiral pipe plant, coke enterprise inventory began to accumulate. As of October 25, the coke inventory of 100 independent coking plants in large-diameter spiral pipe plants was 515,000 tons, and that of large-diameter spiral pipe plants increased by 53,000 tons week-on-week. With the accumulation of coke enterprises' inventory, the increase in coke production of coke enterprises in early October failed to land. The large diameter spiral pipe factory, because of high stocks of steel plants and port coke, large diameter spiral pipe factory, It is a 50 yuan / ton rapid landing of steel coke. The data shows that, as of October 25, the coke inventory of 110 domestic sample steel plants in large-diameter spiral pipe plants was 4,571,200 tons, and that of large-diameter spiral pipe plants decreased by 33,100 tons week-on-week. At present, steel mills have medium and high inventory levels. Large-caliber spiral pipe plants are mainly used for coke consumption. Large-caliber spiral pipe plants. With the coming of the heating season, large-caliber spiral pipe plants and the downstream steel market will also enter the off-season. Large-diameter spiral tube plants, therefore, the demand for coke from steel mills has tended to weaken. In terms of port inventory, the large-calibre spiral pipe plant is currently the highest point in recent years. As of October 25, the large-calibre spiral pipe plant has a total inventory of 4.448 million tons at the four-port spiral pipe plant. , Large-diameter spiral pipe plant, weekly increase of 42,000 tons. Among them, the large-calibre spiral pipe plant, Tianjin Port coke inventory is 360,000 tons, the large-calibre spiral pipe plant, Lianyungang coke inventory is 85,000 tons, the large-calibre spiral pipe plant, Rizhao Port coke inventory is 1.59 million tons, and the large-calibre spiral pipe Plant, Qingdao Port coke inventory is 2.41 million tons. On the whole, the large-calibre spiral pipe plant currently has a medium and high level of coke inventory. The large-calibre spiral pipe plant has relatively loose supply. The large-calibre spiral pipe plant will have a demand for coke after the heating season in November. Obviously weakened, large diameter spiral pipe plant, it is recommended to pay close attention to the inventory situation in each link.
3. Downstream demand continues to be weak, and large-diameter spiral pipe plants will have variable production capacity in the later stages.
Affected by the downturn in the real estate industry, the large-diameter spiral pipe plant has performed worse than expected this year in the steel season. The large-diameter spiral pipe plant has also experienced a decline in pig iron output. The large-diameter spiral pipe plant, data shows that the large-diameter spiral pipe plant, 2019 From January to September, the national pig iron output was 61.202 million tons. The large-diameter spiral pipe plant increased by 6.3% year-on-year, and the large-diameter spiral pipe plant fell by 0.6 percentage point. Among them, the large-diameter spiral pipe factory in September produced 67.306 million tons of pig iron. The large-diameter spiral pipe factory decreased by 3.868 million tons month-on-month, and the large-diameter spiral pipe factory fell by 5 percentage points. After entering October, the large-diameter spiral pipe factory has severe pollution in the north. The large-diameter spiral pipe factory issued the "Integrated Control Plan for Autumn-Winter Air Pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Its Surrounding Areas 2019-2020" on October 16th. Large-caliber spiral pipe plants, followed by Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui and other regions have successively released environmental protection production limit plans. Large-calibre spiral pipe plants, the national steel plant blast furnace operating rate continued to decline, large-calibre spiral pipe plants, data show that As of October 25, the large-calibre spiral pipe plant, the national blast furnace operating rate is 63.54%, the large-calibre spiral pipe plant, the week-on-week ratio, the large-calibre spiral pipe plant, of which the Tangshan area of Hebei has a blast furnace operating rate of 59.42 %, Large-diameter spiral pipe plant, down 0.72 percentage points from the previous week. At present, the operating rate of blast furnaces in steel mills is slightly lower, and the enthusiasm for the purchase of coke in large-diameter spiral tube plants has weakened. Large-caliber spiral tube plants and even some steel mills have stopped purchasing. The heating season is coming, and the large-diameter spiral pipe plant is expected to continue to have weak downstream demand in the short term.
In the face of weak demand for coke, large-diameter spiral pipe plants, the market hopes that the capacity of the coking industry will be reduced by the end of the year, large-diameter spiral pipe plants, but from the current point of view, the situation of production capacity is still unclear. The original estimate of the production capacity of coke in the market was a net reduction. Large-caliber spiral tube plants, but in the coking industry capacity release document previously released by Shanxi Province, the large-capacity spiral tube plant reduced its total production capacity to 14,768. Within 10,000 tons, the large-diameter spiral pipe plant, and on this basis, maintains the built-up capacity only decreases without increasing. At present, Shanxi's total production capacity is estimated at about 138 million tons. The large-diameter spiral pipe plant is actually lower than the target value. The large-diameter spiral pipe plant has a limited impact on the production of Shanxi coke. In addition, the overall plan for coal consumption reduction in Shandong Province requires the reduction of coking capacity of 10.31 million tons and large-diameter spiral pipe plants. Several coking enterprises scheduled to shut down in 2019 are also rumored to have uncertain dates for suspension. Therefore, large-diameter spiral pipe plants are hoping that the capacity reduction will change again at the end of the year. If large-diameter spiral pipe plants have the possibility of deferring coking capacity, large-diameter spiral pipe plants may reduce coking capacity this year. Bubbles.
Fourth, outlook
For coking coal, the large-diameter spiral pipe plant, the steel plant in early October after the coke was raised by 50 yuan / ton landing, the large-diameter spiral pipe plant, the profits of coke enterprises have been severely compressed, large-diameter spiral pipe plant, coke enterprises gradually turned to supply and demand Loose raw material end coking coal prices, large caliber spiral pipe plant, all types of coking coal in October fell by 30-60 yuan / ton. In addition, large-diameter spiral pipe plants and weak international coking coal demand, large-diameter spiral pipe plants, increased Australian coal arrivals, large-diameter spiral pipe plants, combined with recent port clearance restrictions, large-diameter spiral pipe plants, leading to further accumulation of coking coal in ports . After the coming of the heating season in November, the large-diameter spiral tube plant will gradually tighten its environmental protection and production restriction policies. The start of large-diameter spiral tube plants and steel and coking enterprises will also be limited. Large-diameter spiral tube plants will then be coking plants. The demand for coking coal will be further reduced. For large diameter spiral pipe plants, the price of coking coal may be suppressed by high inventory. It should be noted that, for large-caliber spiral pipe plants, there is not much left in the amount of imported coal at present. If large-calibre spiral pipe plants stop customs declaration at a later stage, large-calibre spiral pipe plants will ease the high domestic coking coal inventory. .
In terms of coke, large-diameter spiral pipe plants, in general, large-diameter spiral pipe plants, coke supply is currently slightly loose, large-diameter spiral pipe plants, weak downstream demand superimposed high inventory of steel plants and ports, large-diameter spiral pipe plants As a result, the coke was subjected to greater pressure, and the large-diameter spiral tube plant, and the high start-up of the coking plant and the environmentally-limited production in autumn and winter made the coke even worse. With the coming of the heating season, large-caliber spiral pipe plants and steel mills will continue to tighten their production restrictions. Large-calibre spiral pipe plants will continue to weaken demand for coke at that time. Large-calibre spiral pipe plants will be subject to capacity reduction at the end of the year. The strength is less than expected. For large diameter spiral tube plants, it will be difficult for the coke price to continue to rebound in the later period. For large diameter spiral tube plants, the profit of coke enterprises has been severely compressed. For large diameter spiral tube plants, the probability of continued large decline in the later period is not high. , Large-diameter spiral pipe plant, it is expected that the coke shock in November is weak and the probability of operation is large. It is recommended to pay attention to the impact of both the supply and demand ends of coke production during the late heating season. (Wei Yaru)
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